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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 29

Atlanta Falcons 23 – Denver Broncos 13

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short right to 24-D.Freeman (58-V.Miller).

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
What Happened
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +1.47 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 29, worth -1.51 EP
KICK +0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 39, worth -1.82 EP
PUNT -0.83 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model