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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 48

Denver Broncos 13 – Atlanta Falcons 23

What Actually Happened

(:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-P.Lynch pass short left to 10-E.Sanders pushed ob at ATL 42 for 6 yards (23-R.Alford). PENALTY on ATL-23-R.Alford, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 42.

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
What Happened
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +1.00 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 48, worth -0.29 EP
KICK +0.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.89 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -0.30 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.37 EP