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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 28

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(4:28) 3-M.Bryant 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.17 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 28, worth -1.66 EP
KICK +0.61 EP
What Happened
  • 79% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 38, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model