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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 80

Buffalo Bills 13 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(10:26) 6-C.Schmidt punts 45 yards to LA 35, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.89 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 80, worth -4.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.29 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 37, worth -2.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.62 EP