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HC Rex Ryan
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Los Angeles Rams

HC Jeff Fisher
Sunday 2016-10-09 · 16:25 Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

BUF
49.4%
LA
50.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA defense: -0.077 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • LA offense: -0.060 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • Case Keenum (LA): -0.040 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Tyrod Taylor (BUF): +0.109 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

BUF 22
–
LA 23
Projected margin: LA by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

BUF

Cyrus Kouandjio T Out Ankle
Patrick Lewis C Out Knee
Greg Salas WR Out Groin
Corey White CB Out Shoulder
Charles Clay TE Questionable Knee
Marcell Dareus DT Questionable Hamstring
Jerome Felton RB Questionable Back
Stephon Gilmore CB Questionable Ankle
Cordy Glenn T Questionable Ankle
LeSean McCoy RB Questionable Hand
Jonathan Meeks S Questionable Foot

LA

Michael Brockers DT Questionable Hip
William Hayes DE Questionable Ankle
Robert Quinn DE Questionable Shoulder
Kenny Britt WR Questionable Thigh
Benny Cunningham RB Questionable Thigh
Cody Davis S Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 30
–
LA 19

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:36 FG LA (9:36) 4-G.Zuerlein 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. BUF 0 – LA 3
  • Q1 02:32 TD BUF (2:32) 5-T.Taylor pass short left to 17-J.Hunter for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. BUF 6 – LA 3
  • Q2 14:05 TD BUF (14:05) (Shotgun) 35-M.Gillislee right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 13 – LA 3
  • Q2 07:49 FG LA (7:49) 4-G.Zuerlein 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. BUF 13 – LA 6
  • Q2 02:00 TD LA (2:00) 64-A.Donnal reported in as eligible. 30-T.Gurley right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 13 – LA 12
  • Q2 00:03 FG BUF (:03) 2-D.Carpenter 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. BUF 16 – LA 13
  • Q3 08:11 FG LA (8:11) 4-G.Zuerlein 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. BUF 16 – LA 16
  • Q3 04:05 TD BUF (4:05) (Shotgun) 17-C.Keenum pass short right intended for 10-P.Cooper INTERCEPTED by 21-N.Robey-Coleman at LA 41. 21-N.Robey-Coleman for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 22 – LA 16
  • Q4 05:55 FG LA (5:55) 4-G.Zuerlein 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. BUF 23 – LA 19
  • Q4 02:43 TD BUF (2:43) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short left to 88-M.Goodwin for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN [25-T.McDonald]. BUF 29 – LA 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 13 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 91%

    (9:36) 4-G.Zuerlein 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 1 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (12:25) 6-J.Hekker punts 57 yards to BUF 13, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 15-B.Tate to BUF 11 for -2 yards (13-M.Thomas).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 1 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.62 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (10:26) 6-C.Schmidt punts 45 yards to LA 35, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 4 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 95%

    (7:49) 4-G.Zuerlein 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 3 at the 83
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (6:49) 6-C.Schmidt punts 52 yards to LA 31, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 11-T.Austin to LA 36 for 5 yards (33-C.Anderson).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 6 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (13:29) 6-C.Schmidt punts 58 yards to LA 16, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 3 at the 36
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 61%

    (8:11) 4-G.Zuerlein 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 7 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (5:32) 6-C.Schmidt punts 39 yards to LA 17, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 11-T.Austin to LA 14 for -3 yards (33-C.Anderson).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 15 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (1:58) 6-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to BUF 37, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 15-B.Tate to BUF 37 for no gain (32-T.Hill).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 6 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 54%

    (14:17) 6-C.Schmidt punts 32 yards to LA 7, Center-65-G.Sanborn, downed by BUF-26-R.Blanton.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (5:55) 4-G.Zuerlein 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 3 at the 68 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (4:42) 6-C.Schmidt punts 50 yards to LA 18, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 5 at the 77 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 45%

    (3:47) (Punt formation) 15-B.Marquez right end to LA 25 for 2 yards (28-R.Darby).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 18 at the 84 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.07 EP
    p(convert) 26%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-C.Keenum pass short right intended for 11-T.Austin INTERCEPTED by 21-N.Robey-Coleman [57-L.Alexander] at LA 17. 21-N.Robey-Coleman to LA 14 for 3 yards (11-T.Austin).