4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 83

Buffalo Bills 13 – Los Angeles Rams 6

What Actually Happened

(6:49) 6-C.Schmidt punts 52 yards to LA 31, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 11-T.Austin to LA 36 for 5 yards (33-C.Anderson).

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.92 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 83, worth -4.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.28 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 41, worth -2.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP