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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 74

Buffalo Bills 16 – Los Angeles Rams 13

What Actually Happened

(13:29) 6-C.Schmidt punts 58 yards to LA 16, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.43 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 74, worth -4.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 32, worth -1.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model