4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 36

Los Angeles Rams 13 – Buffalo Bills 16

What Actually Happened

(8:11) 4-G.Zuerlein 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.87 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 36, worth -1.79 EP
KICK +0.34 EP
What Happened
  • 61% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 46, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP