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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 15 at the 89

Los Angeles Rams 16 – Buffalo Bills 23

What Actually Happened

(1:58) 6-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to BUF 37, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 15-B.Tate to BUF 37 for no gain (32-T.Hill).

The Three Options

GO -3.12 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.38 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 89, worth -4.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 46, worth -2.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model