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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 13 at the 19

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(9:36) 4-G.Zuerlein 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.76 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 19, worth -0.29 EP
KICK +2.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 29, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model