Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 68

Buffalo Bills 23 – Los Angeles Rams 19

(4:42) 6-C.Schmidt punts 50 yards to LA 18, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP

53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.25 EP
47% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 68, worth -3.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model