Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 77

Los Angeles Rams 19 – Buffalo Bills 23

(3:47) (Punt formation) 15-B.Marquez right end to LA 25 for 2 yards (28-R.Darby).

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP

What Happened

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.96 EP
55% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 77, worth -3.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.59 EP