Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 18 at the 84

Los Angeles Rams 19 – Buffalo Bills 30

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 17-C.Keenum pass short right intended for 11-T.Austin INTERCEPTED by 21-N.Robey-Coleman [57-L.Alexander] at LA 17. 21-N.Robey-Coleman to LA 14 for 3 yards (11-T.Austin).

The Three Options

GO -2.56 EP

What Happened

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.12 EP
74% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 84, worth -3.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.07 EP