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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 51

Dallas Cowboys 21 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(1:32) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 36 yards to CIN 15, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.94 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 51, worth -2.52 EP
KICK -1.25 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model