Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- QB edge to DAL: Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.324 vs Andy Dalton (CIN) +0.180 EPA/dropback
- DAL defense: +0.051 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- CIN offense: -0.028 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
- CIN defense: -0.079 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
- CIN on 3 more days rest than DAL
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 5
CIN
DAL
Pulled fresh for 2016 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 11:15 TD DAL (11:15) (Shotgun) 21-E.Elliott up the middle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 0 – DAL 6
- Q2 14:47 TD DAL (14:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott right tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 0 – DAL 13
- Q2 04:17 TD DAL (4:17) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 11-C.Beasley for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 0 – DAL 20
- Q3 11:47 TD DAL (11:47) 21-E.Elliott right guard for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 0 – DAL 27
- Q4 10:14 TD CIN (10:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 11-B.LaFell for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – DAL 28
- Q4 02:44 TD CIN (2:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 11-B.LaFell for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 13 – DAL 28
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CIN 4th & 5 at the 40Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EPp(convert) 42% p(FG) 55%
(6:27) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 29 yards to DAL 11, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-81-T.Kroft.
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Q2 CIN 4th & 6 at the 41Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EPp(convert) 39% p(FG) 52%
(7:56) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Harris, Touchback.
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Q2 CIN 4th & 1 at the 66Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EPp(convert) 71%
(2:09) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 43 yards to DAL 23, Center-46-C.Harris. 13-L.Whitehead MUFFS catch, and recovers at DAL 22. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 22 for no gain (21-D.Dennard).
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Q2 DAL 4th & 5 at the 51Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 28%
(1:32) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 36 yards to CIN 15, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.
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Q2 CIN 4th & 10 at the 51Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.39 EPp(convert) 32% p(FG) 28%
(:11) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 38 yards to DAL 13, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-59-N.Vigil.
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Q3 CIN 4th & 9 at the 32Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 73%
(11:52) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.
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Q3 CIN 4th & 14 at the 54Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(8:20) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 44 yards to DAL 10, Center-46-C.Harris. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 20 for 10 yards (53-M.Flowers).
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Q4 DAL 4th & 4 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(7:51) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 51 yards to CIN 23, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 24-A.Jones pushed ob at CIN 23 for no gain (27-J.Wilcox).
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Q4 CIN 4th & 3 at the 54Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52%
(5:20) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 18-A.Green to DAL 49 for 5 yards (24-M.Claiborne, 42-B.Church).