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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 51

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Dallas Cowboys 21

What Actually Happened

(:11) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 38 yards to DAL 13, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-59-N.Vigil.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +1.59 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 51, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 28% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -0.65 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 14, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.39 EP