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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 40

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(6:27) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 29 yards to DAL 11, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-81-T.Kroft.

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.47 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 40, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -0.42 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP