4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 75

Cleveland Browns 7 – New England Patriots 23

What Actually Happened

(2:05) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 49 yards to NE 26, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-J.Edelman to NE 38 for 12 yards (54-D.Alexander; 47-C.Hughlett).

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.60 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 75, worth -4.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 32, worth -1.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model