NE @ CLE — 4th & Data

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HC Bill Belichick

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HC Hue Jackson

Sunday 2016-10-09 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US ☀️ Clear Spread -10.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

50.4%

CLE

49.6%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

Cody Kessler (CLE): -0.078 EPA/dropback in prior starts
CLE offense: -0.056 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
Tom Brady (NE): +0.101 EPA/dropback in prior starts (NE starting Tom Brady in place of Jacoby Brissett)

Predicted Final Score

NE 21

–

CLE 20

Projected margin: NE by 1 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

NE

Brandon Bolden RB Out Knee

Jacoby Brissett QB Out right Thumb

Shea McClellin LB Out Concussion

Vincent Valentine DT Questionable Back

LeGarrette Blount RB Questionable Hip

Marcus Cannon T Questionable Calf

Julian Edelman WR Questionable Foot

Jonathan Freeny LB Questionable Shoulder

Jimmy Garoppolo QB Questionable right Shoulder

Rob Gronkowski TE Questionable Hamstring

Dont'a Hightower LB Questionable Knee

Joe Thuney G Questionable Shoulder

CLE

Corey Coleman WR Out Hand

Seth DeValve TE Out Knee

Cameron Erving C Out Chest

Josh McCown QB Out left Shoulder

Austin Reiter C Out Knee

Randall Telfer TE Out Ankle

Ibraheim Campbell S Questionable Hamstring

Carl Nassib DE Questionable Hand

Tramon Williams CB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 33

–

CLE 13

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 10:32 TD NE (10:32) 29-L.Blount left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE #68 (Waddle) reports as an eligible receiver. NE 6 – CLE 0
Q1 06:14 TD CLE (6:14) (Shotgun) 6-C.Kessler pass short left to 16-A.Hawkins for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 7 – CLE 6
Q1 02:12 TD NE (2:12) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 88-M.Bennett for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [53-J.Schobert]. NE 13 – CLE 7
Q1 01:26 SAF NE (1:26) 6-C.Kessler FUMBLES (Aborted) at CLE 4, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY. Backward pass Kessler through the end zone, pressured by NE #54 Hightower. NE 16 – CLE 7
Q2 12:15 TD NE (12:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 88-M.Bennett for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 22 – CLE 7
Q3 12:28 TD NE (12:28) (No Huddle) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 88-M.Bennett for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 29 – CLE 7
Q4 14:05 TD CLE (14:05) (Shotgun) 15-C.Whitehurst pass deep middle to 89-C.Hamlett for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 30 – CLE 13
Q4 07:45 FG NE (7:45) 3-S.Gostkowski 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 33 – CLE 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 CLE 4th & 5 at the 68

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 44%

(13:52) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 48 yards to NE 20, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-59-T.Carder.
Q2 CLE 4th & 14 at the 67

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28%

(9:20) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 40 yards to NE 27, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.
Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 1

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 63% p(FG) 98%

(6:07) 29-L.Blount left guard to CLE 1 for no gain (56-D.Davis; 24-I.Campbell).
Q2 CLE 4th & 6 at the 73

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42%

(3:55) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 37 yards to NE 36, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.
Q2 NE 4th & 5 at the 58

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 43%

(3:10) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 46 yards to CLE 12, Center-49-J.Cardona. 29-D.Johnson to CLE 20 for 8 yards (51-B.Mingo; 46-J.Develin).
Q2 CLE 4th & 5 at the 75

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 45%

(2:05) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 49 yards to NE 26, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-J.Edelman to NE 38 for 12 yards (54-D.Alexander; 47-C.Hughlett).
Q2 NE 4th & 3 at the 32

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 49% p(FG) 66%

(:17) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
Q3 NE 4th & 14 at the 70

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29%

(6:53) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 52 yards to CLE 18, Center-49-J.Cardona. 29-D.Johnson to CLE 32 for 14 yards (43-N.Ebner). PENALTY on CLE, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 30.
Q3 CLE 4th & 5 at the 75

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 45%

(5:55) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 50 yards to NE 25, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-J.Edelman to NE 25 for no gain (53-J.Schobert).
Q3 NE 4th & 6 at the 61

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41%

(2:36) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 46 yards to CLE 15, Center-49-J.Cardona. 23-J.Haden to CLE 20 for 5 yards (43-N.Ebner).
Q4 NE 4th & 3 at the 13

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP

p(convert) 46% p(FG) 94%

(7:45) 3-S.Gostkowski 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
Q4 CLE 4th & 7 at the 80

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40%

(6:07) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 43 yards to NE 37, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.
Q4 NE 4th & 7 at the 60

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(5:16) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 46 yards to CLE 14, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE.
Q4 CLE 4th & 3 at the 48 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 50% p(FG) 25%

(3:40) (Shotgun) 11-T.Pryor pass incomplete deep middle to 80-R.Louis.
Q4 NE 4th & 12 at the 42 late-game

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.60 EP

p(convert) 28% p(FG) 39%

(:37) 6-R.Allen punts 19 yards to CLE 23, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.