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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 32

New England Patriots 23 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(:17) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +2.58 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 32, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.88 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 42, worth -0.72 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model