Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 61

New England Patriots 30 – Cleveland Browns 7

(2:36) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 46 yards to CLE 15, Center-49-J.Cardona. 23-J.Haden to CLE 20 for 5 yards (43-N.Ebner).

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.20 EP
59% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 61, worth -3.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model