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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 13

New England Patriots 30 – Cleveland Browns 13

What Actually Happened

(7:45) 3-S.Gostkowski 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +2.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.25 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 13, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 23, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP