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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 80

Cleveland Browns 13 – New England Patriots 33

What Actually Happened

(6:07) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 43 yards to NE 37, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.00 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 80, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 37, worth -1.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model