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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 12 at the 42

New England Patriots 33 – Cleveland Browns 13

What Actually Happened

(:37) 6-R.Allen punts 19 yards to CLE 23, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +1.04 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 42, worth -0.68 EP
KICK +0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.70 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.60 EP