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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 76

Detroit Lions 21 – Philadelphia Eagles 20

What Actually Happened

(4:22) 6-S.Martin punts 57 yards to PHI 19, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-26-D.Carey.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.98 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 76, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.71 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 34, worth -1.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP