Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- DET offense: +0.125 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
- DET defense: +0.130 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
- PHI on 7 more days rest than DET
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- QB edge to PHI: Matthew Stafford (DET) +0.168 vs Carson Wentz (PHI) +0.269 EPA/dropback
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 5
PHI
DET
Pulled fresh for 2016 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 09:42 TD DET (9:42) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 25-T.Riddick for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 0 – DET 6
- Q1 01:00 TD DET (1:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 25-T.Riddick for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 0 – DET 13
- Q2 10:26 TD PHI (10:26) 64-M.Tobin reported in as eligible. 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 24-R.Mathews for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 6 – DET 14
- Q2 03:15 TD DET (3:15) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 11-M.Jones for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 7 – DET 20
- Q2 00:03 FG PHI (:03) 6-C.Sturgis 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. PHI 10 – DET 21
- Q3 09:21 TD PHI (9:21) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 13-J.Huff for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 16 – DET 21
- Q3 06:48 FG PHI (6:48) 6-C.Sturgis 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. PHI 20 – DET 21
- Q4 06:45 FG PHI (6:45) 6-C.Sturgis 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. PHI 23 – DET 21
- Q4 01:32 FG DET (1:32) 5-M.Prater 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. PHI 23 – DET 24
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 PHI 4th & 7 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(6:10) 8-D.Jones punts 42 yards to DET 20, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 12-A.Roberts.
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Q2 DET 4th & 1 at the 53Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 71% p(FG) 24%
(8:11) 70-C.Robinson reported in as eligible. 9-M.Stafford up the middle to DET 49 for 2 yards (75-V.Curry).
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Q2 PHI 4th & 15 at the 32Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 73%
(:03) 6-C.Sturgis 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.
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Q3 PHI 4th & 8 at the 14Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 95%
(6:48) 6-C.Sturgis 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.
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Q3 DET 4th & 2 at the 76Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EPp(convert) 63%
(4:22) 6-S.Martin punts 57 yards to PHI 19, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-26-D.Carey.
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Q3 PHI 4th & 11 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(1:34) 8-D.Jones punts 34 yards to DET 48, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, downed by PHI-42-C.Maragos.
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Q4 DET 4th & 1 at the 43Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 47%
(15:00) 70-C.Robinson reported in as eligible. 25-T.Riddick right tackle to PHI 41 for 2 yards (95-M.Kendricks).
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Q4 DET 4th & 16 at the 47Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 37%
(12:13) 6-S.Martin punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Touchback.
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Q4 PHI 4th & 5 at the 31Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 75%
(6:45) 6-C.Sturgis 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.
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Q4 DET 4th & 7 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(5:11) 6-S.Martin punts 55 yards to PHI 17, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 23 for 6 yards (26-D.Carey).
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Q4 DET 4th & 11 at the 11 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%
(1:32) 5-M.Prater 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.