Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 11 at the 82

Philadelphia Eagles 20 – Detroit Lions 21

(1:34) 8-D.Jones punts 34 yards to DET 48, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, downed by PHI-42-C.Maragos.

The Three Options

GO -2.62 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.33 EP
64% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 82, worth -4.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model