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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 43

Detroit Lions 21 – Philadelphia Eagles 20

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 70-C.Robinson reported in as eligible. 25-T.Riddick right tackle to PHI 41 for 2 yards (95-M.Kendricks).

The Three Options

GO +1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.89 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 43, worth -2.13 EP
KICK -0.47 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model