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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 72

Detroit Lions 21 – Philadelphia Eagles 23

What Actually Happened

(5:11) 6-S.Martin punts 55 yards to PHI 17, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 23 for 6 yards (26-D.Carey).

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.26 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 72, worth -4.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 30, worth -1.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model