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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 8

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:16) 11-S.Janikowski 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.80 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 8, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model