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San Diego Chargers

HC Mike McCoy
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Oakland Raiders

HC Jack Del Rio
Sunday 2016-10-09 · 16:25 Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum, Oakland US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 50.5

Win Probability

SD
54.1%
OAK
45.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: -0.074 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Derek Carr (LV): -0.043 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • LAC offense: +0.013 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SD 23
–
OAK 21
Projected margin: SD by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

SD

Jahleel Addae S Out Collarbone
Nick Dzubnar LB Out Knee
Brandon Flowers CB Out Concussion
Denzel Perryman LB Questionable Shoulder
Joe Barksdale T Questionable Foot
King Dunlap T Questionable Illness
Antonio Gates TE Questionable Hamstring
Craig Mager CB Questionable Shoulder

OAK

Nate Allen S Out Quadricep
Latavius Murray RB Out Toe
Menelik Watson T Out Calf
Austin Howard T Questionable Ankle
Taiwan Jones RB Questionable Knee
Matt McCants T Questionable Knee
Malcolm Smith LB Questionable Quadricep
Clive Walford TE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SD 31
–
OAK 34

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:03 FG LV (4:03) 11-S.Janikowski 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. SD 0 – OAK 3
  • Q2 13:13 TD LAC (13:13) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle to 16-Ty.Williams for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SD 6 – OAK 3
  • Q2 07:16 FG LV (7:16) 11-S.Janikowski 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. SD 7 – OAK 6
  • Q2 04:28 FG LAC (4:28) 2-J.Lambo 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser. SD 10 – OAK 6
  • Q2 00:02 FG LV (:02) 11-S.Janikowski 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. SD 10 – OAK 9
  • Q3 12:38 TD LAC (12:38) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 28-M.Gordon for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SD 16 – OAK 9
  • Q3 11:34 TD LV (11:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 89-A.Cooper for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN [54-M.Ingram]. SD 17 – OAK 15
  • Q3 10:14 TD LAC (10:14) (Shotgun) 79-K.Wiggins reported in as eligible. 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 86-H.Henry for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SD 23 – OAK 16
  • Q3 04:46 FG LV (4:46) 11-S.Janikowski 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. SD 24 – OAK 19
  • Q3 01:15 TD LV (1:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 15-M.Crabtree for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SD 24 – OAK 25
  • Q4 12:54 TD LV (12:54) 79-D.Kirkland and 76-J.Feliciano reported in as eligible. 49-J.Olawale up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SD 24 – OAK 33
  • Q4 06:26 TD LAC (6:26) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 85-A.Gates for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SD 30 – OAK 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 98%

    (4:03) 11-S.Janikowski 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 10 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 70%

    (1:32) 11-S.Janikowski 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

    (7:16) 11-S.Janikowski 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 2 at the 18
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 91%

    (4:28) 2-J.Lambo 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (2:55) 7-M.King punts 48 yards to LAC 24, Center-59-J.Condo, out of bounds.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 4 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 55%

    (:02) 11-S.Janikowski 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 6 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 74%

    (4:46) 11-S.Janikowski 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 3 at the 21
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 88%

    (1:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 15-M.Crabtree for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 13 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (:06) 8-D.Kaser punts 16 yards to LAC 32, Center-47-M.Windt, out of bounds.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 2 at the 67 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58%

    (4:18) 7-M.King punts 40 yards to LAC 27, Center-59-J.Condo. 33-D.McCluster to LAC 33 for 6 yards (91-S.Calhoun).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 1 at the 18 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 91%

    (2:07) (Field Goal formation) 8-D.Kaser FUMBLES (Aborted) at LV 26, recovered by LAC-84-S.McGrath at LV 35. 84-S.McGrath to LV 35 for no gain (39-K.McGill).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 8 at the 63 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (:20) 7-M.King punts 51 yards to LAC 12, Center-59-J.Condo. 33-D.McCluster to LAC 21 for 9 yards (16-J.Holton).