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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 72

Las Vegas Raiders 6 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(2:55) 7-M.King punts 48 yards to LAC 24, Center-59-J.Condo, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.59 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 72, worth -3.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model