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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 38

Las Vegas Raiders 6 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(:02) 11-S.Janikowski 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +2.28 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 38, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 47, worth -0.55 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model