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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 21

Las Vegas Raiders 19 – Los Angeles Chargers 24

What Actually Happened

(1:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 15-M.Crabtree for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.07 EP
What Happened
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.85 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +2.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.51 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 31, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT +0.50 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model