4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 13 at the 84

Los Angeles Chargers 24 – Las Vegas Raiders 27

What Actually Happened

(:06) 8-D.Kaser punts 16 yards to LAC 32, Center-47-M.Windt, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.06 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +0.78 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 84, worth -4.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 42, worth -2.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model