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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 18

Los Angeles Chargers 31 – Las Vegas Raiders 34

What Actually Happened

(2:07) (Field Goal formation) 8-D.Kaser FUMBLES (Aborted) at LV 26, recovered by LAC-84-S.McGrath at LV 35. 84-S.McGrath to LV 35 for no gain (39-K.McGill).

The Three Options

GO +2.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.00 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 18, worth -0.60 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
  • 91% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 28, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model