Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 63

Las Vegas Raiders 34 – Los Angeles Chargers 31

(:20) 7-M.King punts 51 yards to LAC 12, Center-59-J.Condo. 33-D.McCluster to LAC 21 for 9 yards (16-J.Holton).

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +0.36 EP
65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 63, worth -1.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model