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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 32

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:32) 11-S.Janikowski 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.54 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 42, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT +0.42 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model