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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 17

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(:48) 19-R.Aguayo 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.55 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.76 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.30 EP
KICK +2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 27, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model