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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Dirk Koetter
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
Monday 2016-10-10 · 20:30 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

TB
30.8%
CAR
69.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CAR defense: -0.115 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Derek Anderson (CAR): +0.202 EPA/dropback in prior starts (CAR starting Derek Anderson in place of Cam Newton)
  • TB offense: -0.048 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • TB defense: +0.107 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Derek Anderson (CAR) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

TB 19
–
CAR 26
Projected margin: CAR by 7 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

TB

Cecil Shorts WR Out Hamstring
Robert Ayers DE Doubtful Ankle
Doug Martin RB Doubtful Hamstring
Gerald McCoy DT Doubtful Calf
Clinton McDonald DT Doubtful Hamstring
Charles Sims RB Doubtful Knee
Luke Stocker TE Doubtful Ankle
Brent Grimes CB Questionable Hamstring
Brandon Myers TE Questionable Hip
Evan Smith C Questionable Back
Keith Tandy S Questionable Calf
Noah Spence DE Questionable Shoulder

CAR

James Bradberry CB Out Foot
Vernon Butler DT Out Ankle
Cam Newton QB Out Concussion
Michael Oher T Out Concussion
Jonathan Stewart RB Out Hamstring
Thomas Davis LB Questionable Hamstring
Devin Funchess WR Questionable Foot
Ted Ginn WR Questionable Foot
Charles Johnson DE Questionable Quadricep
Mike Tolbert RB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 17
–
CAR 14

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:32 FG TB (6:32) 19-R.Aguayo 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger. TB 3 – CAR 0
  • Q2 00:48 FG TB (:48) 19-R.Aguayo 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger. TB 6 – CAR 0
  • Q3 09:12 TD CAR (9:12) 34-C.Artis-Payne up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB 6 – CAR 6
  • Q3 06:11 TD CAR (6:11) 34-C.Artis-Payne left tackle for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 6 – CAR 13
  • Q3 04:34 TD TB (4:34) 3-J.Winston pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 12 – CAR 14
  • Q4 00:03 FG TB (:03) 19-R.Aguayo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger. TB 17 – CAR 14

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 10 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 92%

    (6:32) 19-R.Aguayo 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (4:47) 8-A.Lee punts 38 yards to TB 28, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-A.Humphries.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 14 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 27%

    (15:00) 9-B.Anger punts 39 yards to CAR 10, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 6 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 39%

    (10:30) 8-A.Lee punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (9:03) 9-B.Anger punts 48 yards to CAR 29, Center-48-A.DePaola. 19-T.Ginn MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by TB-89-R.Shepard at CAR 30. 89-R.Shepard to CAR 30 for no gain (19-T.Ginn).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 11 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 94%

    (5:24) 19-R.Aguayo 33 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 5 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 92%

    (:48) 19-R.Aguayo 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%

    (9:12) 34-C.Artis-Payne up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (7:59) 9-B.Anger punts 46 yards to CAR 26, Center-48-A.DePaola. 19-T.Ginn pushed ob at CAR 32 for 6 yards (37-K.Tandy).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (3:35) 8-A.Lee punts 52 yards to TB 19, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-A.Humphries to TB 31 for 12 yards (52-J.Norris; 84-E.Dickson).

  • Q3 TB 4th & 11 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (2:05) 9-B.Anger punts 41 yards to CAR 29, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 19 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (13:22) 9-B.Anger punts 51 yards to CAR 18, Center-48-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 10 at the 28 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 78%

    (3:38) 19-R.Aguayo 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 3 at the 57 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (2:00) 8-A.Lee punts 43 yards to TB 14, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-42-C.Jones.