Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 11 at the 70

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – Carolina Panthers 14

(2:05) 9-B.Anger punts 41 yards to CAR 29, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

The Three Options

GO -2.14 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.93 EP
69% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model