4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 66

Carolina Panthers 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(4:47) 8-A.Lee punts 38 yards to TB 28, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-A.Humphries.

The Three Options

GO +0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.97 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP