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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 14 at the 49

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 9-B.Anger punts 39 yards to CAR 10, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.48 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.95 EP
KICK -1.70 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.96 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model