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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 39

Washington Commanders 6 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(13:54) 31-M.Jones right guard to BAL 36 for 3 yards (57-C.Mosley).

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.00 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 39, worth -2.42 EP
KICK -0.96 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 48, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model