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Washington Commanders

HC Jay Gruden
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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2016-10-09 · 13:00 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US 💨 Windy Spread 4.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

WAS
62.5%
BAL
37.5%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: +0.110 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • BAL offense: -0.136 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • QB edge to WAS: Joe Flacco (BAL) -0.003 vs Kirk Cousins (WAS) +0.179 EPA/dropback
  • WAS defense: +0.081 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Wind 16 mph

Predicted Final Score

WAS 23
–
BAL 20
Projected margin: WAS by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

WAS

Bashaud Breeland CB Out Ankle
Su'a Cravens S Out Concussion
Josh Doctson WR Out Achilles
Dashaun Phillips CB Out Hamstring
Ryan Kerrigan LB Questionable Elbow
Shawn Lauvao G Questionable Ankle

BAL

Ronnie Stanley T Doubtful Foot
Kenneth Dixon RB Questionable Knee
Sheldon Price CB Questionable Thigh
Devin Hester WR Questionable Thigh

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 16
–
BAL 10

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:19 TD BAL (10:19) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 80-C.Gillmore for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 0 – BAL 6
  • Q1 05:11 TD WAS (5:11) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 45 yards to WAS 15, Center-46-M.Cox. 80-J.Crowder for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 6 – BAL 7
  • Q2 15:00 FG BAL (15:00) 9-J.Tucker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. WAS 6 – BAL 10
  • Q3 08:35 TD WAS (8:35) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 88-P.Garcon for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 12 – BAL 10
  • Q3 00:18 FG WAS (:18) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 16 – BAL 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 1 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.69 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (8:25) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 25 yards to BAL 29, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-52-T.Garvin.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 14 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (5:11) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 45 yards to WAS 15, Center-46-M.Cox. 80-J.Crowder for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 7 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 94%

    (15:00) 9-J.Tucker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 1 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 45%

    (13:54) 31-M.Jones right guard to BAL 36 for 3 yards (57-C.Mosley).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 14 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 42%

    (11:03) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Touchback.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 6 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 27%

    (7:56) 4-S.Koch punts 40 yards to WAS 6, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-57-C.Mosley.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 12 at the 17
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 91%

    (4:34) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker pass incomplete short middle to 80-C.Gillmore (29-D.Ihenacho) [24-J.Norman]. Fake Field Goal.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 1 at the 20
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 88%

    (1:28) 31-M.Jones up the middle to BAL 20 for no gain (78-M.Pierce).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (:53) 4-S.Koch punts 42 yards to WAS 29, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 4 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (12:45) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Touchback.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 16 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (10:09) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 36 yards to WAS 50, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (7:09) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 68 yards to WAS 1, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-11-K.Aiken.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 4 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 97%

    (:18) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 6 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 32%

    (13:43) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.02 EP
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 45%

    (10:55) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 34 yards to BAL 5, Center-57-N.Sundberg, out of bounds.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 4 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (9:23) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 52 yards to WAS 37, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.63 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (7:46) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 46 yards to BAL 8, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS. #83 Daniel Brown deflected the punt

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 4 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (5:44) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 54 yards to WAS 17, Center-46-M.Cox. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 21 for 4 yards (11-K.Aiken). PENALTY on WAS-32-R.Kelley, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 21.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 6 at the 75 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (2:45) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 47 yards to BAL 28, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 14-D.Hester to BAL 44 for 16 yards (22-D.Everett). PENALTY on BAL-41-A.Levine, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 27.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 2 at the 75 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60%

    (2:02) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco scrambles left end pushed ob at BAL 31 for 6 yards (20-G.Toler).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 8 at the 21 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.60 EP
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 86%

    (:20) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete short middle to 17-M.Wallace [94-P.Smith]. Mike Wallace (BAL) injured on play.