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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 14 at the 40

Washington Commanders 6 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(11:03) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.06 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 40, worth -2.44 EP
KICK -1.17 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.42 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -3.06 EP
PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model