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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 46

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Washington Commanders 6

What Actually Happened

(7:56) 4-S.Koch punts 40 yards to WAS 6, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-57-C.Mosley.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.46 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 46, worth -2.26 EP
KICK -1.19 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 13, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model