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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 71

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Washington Commanders 6

What Actually Happened

(:53) 4-S.Koch punts 42 yards to WAS 29, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.00 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 71, worth -3.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 29, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP