Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 16 at the 86

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Washington Commanders 6

(10:09) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 36 yards to WAS 50, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.19 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.48 EP
72% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 86, worth -5.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model