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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 44

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Washington Commanders 16

What Actually Happened

(13:43) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.24 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 44, worth -2.27 EP
KICK -1.23 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model